Primary Day 2026: Key California, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey Races to Watch
Voters head to the polls Tuesday in six states for a primary election day that could influence the balance of power in Washington and shape the political landscape heading into November.
California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota, and New Mexico all hold elections. Most political attention centers on California and Iowa, where major gubernatorial and Senate contests could reveal voter priorities ahead of the general election.
With control of Congress still at stake, Tuesday’s results may provide an early look at which candidates and issues are gaining momentum.
California Begins the Search for Newsom’s Successor
California voters will help narrow the field to replace Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who cannot seek another term because of term limits.
California uses a top-two primary system. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.
The race remains unusually open. Several high-profile Democrats chose not to run, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Alex Padilla, and Attorney General Rob Bonta.
For the first time in years, voters lack a clear front-runner.
More than 60 candidates entered the race. Only a handful have built serious statewide campaigns. Recent polling suggests former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and businessman Tom Steyer have emerged as leading contenders.
California voters will also weigh in on several congressional races. Five newly drawn Democratic-leaning districts could help determine control of the U.S. House.
Because California sends the largest congressional delegation to Washington, these races carry national significance.
Iowa Democrats Pick a Senate Challenger
Iowa Democrats will choose the candidate they believe can best compete in a crucial Senate race this fall.
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson enters the general election cycle as the expected GOP nominee. She has received support from former President Donald Trump and remains a strong contender in the Republican-leaning state.
Democrats view Iowa as part of a larger effort to expand their electoral map. If they hope to regain Senate control, they must compete successfully in states that have recently favored Republicans.
That challenge will not be easy.
Republicans continue to perform well across much of the Midwest. However, Democrats believe the right candidate could make the race competitive.
Tuesday’s primary will reveal who Democratic voters trust to carry that message.
New Jersey District Could Become a Battleground
Political observers will closely watch New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District.
Several Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Republican Representative Thomas Kean Jr. in November.
The district has become one of the most competitive House seats in the Northeast.
Questions about Kean’s extended absence from Washington have also drawn attention. The congressman has missed more than 100 House votes since early March while dealing with medical issues.
Democrats hope that uncertainty creates an opening in a district they view as winnable.
Montana Delivers a Surprise Twist
Montana has generated unexpected interest after two prominent Republicans decided not to seek reelection.
Senator Steve Daines and Representative Ryan Zinke both announced their departures shortly before filing deadlines.
Their decisions created open-seat races and increased political interest across the state.
Montana remains a Republican stronghold. However, open seats often attract stronger competition and unexpected candidates.
One candidate drawing attention is Seth Bodnar, an Iraq War veteran and former president of the University of Montana.
Running as an independent, Bodnar argues that both major parties have failed to address many of the nation’s biggest challenges. He has built his campaign around political independence and government reform.
His fundraising numbers have impressed political analysts. He has also attracted support from voters frustrated with partisan politics.
Before appearing on the November ballot, state officials must certify the signatures submitted by his campaign.
What Tuesday’s Results Could Mean
Primary elections rarely generate the excitement of general elections. Yet they often provide the first clues about where voters want the country to go.
Tuesday’s contests will reveal voter enthusiasm, candidate strength, and campaign effectiveness.
The results may also show whether voters prefer continuity or change as the nation moves closer to November.
Political strategists, donors, and candidates will study the results closely. Voters, meanwhile, will continue shaping the future direction of state and federal government.
As polls close, attention will turn to California, Iowa, New Jersey, and Montana. The winners may gain more than nominations. They could gain momentum heading into one of the most important election seasons in recent memory.
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