The Texas Senate race poll that dropped this week has Republicans checking the map twice. A YouGov survey of more than 3,600 Texans, reported by USA Today, shows Democrats leading or tied in both the Senate and governor’s races. In Texas. In October. Yes, you read that right.
What the new Texas Senate race poll found
YouGov surveyed 3,625 Texas voters from Sept. 28 to Oct. 5. In the governor’s race, Democrat Hinojosa sits at 48% to Gov. Greg Abbott’s 47%, according to FOX 7 Austin. That is inside the 3-point margin of error, so call it a dead heat. Another 5% are undecided.
In the Senate contest, RealClearPolling lists the same YouGov survey at Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%. That is a six-point gap. The sample was big, and the poll also found 56% of respondents disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.
One Talarico Paxton poll, or a pattern?
Here is the thing: a single poll proves little. Instead, the trend is what matters. Senate surveys have put Talarico ahead for weeks, though the size of the lead varies a lot:
- The New York Times poll (Oct. 3) had Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 45%.
- Fox News (Oct. 1) had Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 49%.
- Big Data Poll (Sept. 27) had Talarico at 47%, Paxton at 45%.
- UMass Lowell, released Thursday, had the two tied at 45% each, per the university.
The RealClearPolling average has Talarico up about three points, 48.4% to 45.3%. That is a modest lead, but a consistent one. USA Today calls the race tightening, though honestly, the Senate numbers have looked close for a while.
The Paxton camp sees it differently. A senior adviser, Nick Maddux, told Newsweek that every serious pollster would say the campaign’s numbers have improved since early September. Paxton’s own internal poll shows him up 48% to 45%. Campaign-released internals, however, are rarely the most neutral reading. His path to this point was not simple either, since Paxton beat Cornyn in the Republican primary and reshaped the GOP landscape.
The governor’s race: closer than the history books suggest
Abbott is chasing a fourth term, and Democrats have not won a Texas governor’s race since 1990. Even so, the Texas midterm poll numbers are not exactly a cakewalk for him. The RealClearPolling average has Abbott ahead 48.1% to 46.4%, and it rates the race a toss-up. The individual polls point in different directions. Fox News had Abbott up 52% to 47%. The New York Times had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46%.
The age gap is striking. Hinojosa leads 64% to 30% among voters 18 to 29, and 58% to 34% among those 30 to 44. Abbott holds the older groups, including 61% to 36% among voters 65 and up. Men favor Abbott 52% to 42%.
Why the Texas Senate polling should worry Republicans
Republicans have held this Senate seat since 1988. Talarico, a state representative and seminarian, beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic primary. Paxton won the GOP runoff in May over Sen. John Cornyn with Trump’s endorsement. His 2023 impeachment by the state House keeps coming up as baggage. In the Fox poll, Talarico was viewed favorably by 52% of voters, Paxton by just 40%. That is the kind of Texas Senate polling that makes Republican strategists nervous.
Money has not been the problem for the GOP. More than $183 million had been spent on Senate ads as of Sept. 25, KSAT reported, and Republicans outspent Democrats by more than three to one. So far, that gap has not produced a clear lead.
John Cluverius of UMass Lowell put the stakes plainly. The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Paxton did not yet have a law degree and Talarico was not even born.
What comes next before Nov. 3
Election Day is Nov. 3, and more polls will land before then. USA Today notes the survey came the day before Trump was set to stop in Texas to rally the Republican ticket. Meanwhile, Trump has also been pushing for a Paxton-Talarico debate that the race has not yet had. For the bigger picture, see what the 2026 midterms could mean for Congress. Expect both campaigns to treat every new number as either proof or noise, depending on which way it points.
So the question is no longer whether Texas is competitive. It is whether these small leads survive a month of attack ads and a presidential visit. Every new Texas Senate race poll from here on will be read through that lens.
